Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
