Followers of Newcastle United are increasingly viewing Eddie Howe's side as an unreliable ally. At their brilliant best, they can be the undisputed thrill-seekers, producing high-octane exhibitions. But, on other occasions, once-dependable players like their midfield linchpin and others utterly do not show up.
Exacerbating the frustration is a late-game strategy laced with a pronounced element of chaos. Before their Boxing Day to Manchester United, the numbers tell a concerning story: they have dropped 13 vital top-flight leverage from winning situations this campaign and are without a shutout in ten consecutive games across all competitions. Earning a win at their famous stadium would represent only their second-ever domestic success on the travel this season.
On the flip side, defeat has only come on one occasion in their previous 6 league encounters, and although occupying a modest eleventh position, they are a mere six points behind the highly-prized Champions League places. Factor in an impending two-legged League Cup semi-final against Manchester City and a decent prospect of progressing to the Champions League last 16, and it becomes simpler to appreciate the manager's measured optimism.
“It's not only about issues,” remarked the team's head coach. “You can see strengths too. The perspective here is very much positive at present. I understand outside observers might have a different take, but in my view we are improving.”
The challenge persists: can this group match – or perhaps exceed – the heights of last season's cup glory and fifth-place finish? Balancing a packed schedule complicates.
This heavy-leggedness could explain the failure to sustain a stellar first-half showing against their London rivals, eventually letting slip a two-goal lead to draw the game. Likewise, it could be the culprit for a subdued performance in a painful loss to arch-rivals Sunderland, where the team looked off the pace just a short time after a tough European away day.
Although coaching is undoubtedly Howe's forte, the constant schedule of two games a week football has drastically limited essential training time. This impedes the team's tactical evolution to playing with new striker Nick Woltemade up front, instead of the departed Alexander Isak. While hugely gifted, the German forward does not possess the equivalent searing counter-attacking pace or intense defensive work rate.
Indeed, the team's previously effective pressing game has occasionally failed. Injuries to key component Joelinton have been a factor, while high-profile arrivals the Swedish winger and the English midfielder have had difficulties settling since their combined £90m+ moves.
If a move to a back three could theoretically help the cause, a worsening backline injury crisis makes that difficult. Key defenders will be missing for the next key matches, challenging the squad's depth.
At their ferocious peak, they seem almost unstoppable. The catch is sustaining that fervor for the full 90 minutes. The go-to plan B of dropping deep into a deep-lying counter-attacking shape has sometimes been counterproductive.
“The Chelsea match descended into disorganized at two-all,” said the coach. “But the intention was trying to win. Our mentality is to always try to win.”
What appears required is a pragmatic solution – one featuring superior possession control, a midfield adept of controlling the tempo, and a realistic readiness to sometimes accept a draw. Yet, a desire to challenge on all fronts is pushing limited squad options to their breaking point.
This might sound heretical to some, but a more selective approach in the cup competitions in the initial stages could have eased the present schedule congestion. Amid vital Champions League and league matches on the horizon, the need to strategically choose focus areas is becoming increasingly obvious.
The manager acknowledged the scale of the challenge ahead. “When you're at this club, the expectations are enormous. Every moment's crucial. There is progress to be made in the Premier League. We're in the League Cup semi-finals, we aim to progress in the Europe and do well in the FA Cup.
“We're moving in the correct path, but we have lots of work to do to transform into the regularly winning side we aspire to be. Our capacity to put winning runs has eluded us so far.
“The challenge is to attain that standard we know we're capable of. I believe that the confidence to do that is growing. But now we have to demonstrate it. It ain't all bad right now, but the coming period will decide a great deal.”